All players represent a country. Together they try to tackle different refugee crises. This matrix shows their chances of success. Every scenario starts out with a fifty/fifty chance of success/failure. Depending on the pro and con points these numbers change.
There is a rapidly rising number of refugees from Venezuela, fleeing from violence, and poverty. The countries hope to manage to deal with the situation and provide a safe space for the refugees.
This will succeed because:
- Neighbouring countries, mostly Latin American and Caribbean countries, will host most refugees from Venezuela short term, providing a safe place to stay. (+30%)
- Countries from all around the world offer to take in, welcome, and integrate the migrants from Venezuela long term. (+20%)
- Countries from all around the world send humanitarian aid towards the refugees, helping the countries which have taken in the largest part of the refugees to accommodate the change. (+20%)
- Countries send support and diplomats to Venezuela, trying to improve the situation in the country. This will lower the number of refugees. (+10%)
This will fail because:
- Some countries refuse to take in more migrants from Venezuela for various reasons, increasing the pressure on the countries who are still willing to take in Venezuelan refugees (-40%)
- The situation in Venezuela stays the same or worsens. This will increase the number of refugees, and other countries simply do not have the resources to host the large amounts of refugees (-30%)
(succeed: 60%, fail: 40%)
Hurricane Milton is approaching the state of Florida in the United States. Officials warn that it is a life-threatening situation and encourage people to flee the areas. The players manage to evacuate people and provide a safe space for refugees.
This will succeed because:
- People trying to flee are given the resources, including money, planes, and gas, which make it possible for them to flee. (+20%)
- Emergency centres are set up, and refugees from the affected areas are hosted properly in other areas. (+20%)
- Enough money is provided to the citizens of affected areas, to rebuild their homes and infrastructure. This makes it possible for them to go back home, decreasing the number of migrants to other areas. (+20%)
This will fail because:
- People do not have the means to flee the area, including transport and a place to stay, leaving them behind in a dangerous situation. (-30%)
- People do not return to Florida, as the area is ruined, increasing the pressure of migration on other areas. (-20%)
(succeed: 60%, fail: 40%)
A rising number of refugees from Afghanistan are fleeing their country due to severe human rights violations. Various countries attempt to manage to situation and ensure safe accommodation for the refugees by:
This will succeed because:
- Neighbouring countries host the majority of the refugees in the short term, providing a safe place and essential services. (+30%)
- Countries from across the world take in Afghan refugees long-term, decreasing the pressure on neighbouring countries. (+20%)
- Diplomatic missions work with (/force with e.g. economic sanctions) the government to improve human rights conditions, reducing the rate of outflow in the long run. (+10%)
This will fail because:
- The short-term camps are of bad quality, therefore still not providing a safe place for refugees. (-20%)
- The human rights conditions in Afghanistan continue to decline, resulting in an increase of refugees, which other countries cannot manage. (-20%)
(succeed: 70%, fail: 30%)